Valdez/Thompson Pass Forecast(NWS)	Surface Prog (NWS)
Area Radar(NWS)	Valdez CAM (FAA List)
Satellite - Alaska (NWS)	Thompson Pass (summit) WX and Cam (DOT0

                     Snowpack Depth         Snowfall

5000' est                        142"                   520
4000'  est                          75                   390
T. Pass  2700                    40                    290
Mountain Chalet (800)       10                    132
Valdez  (sea level)              10                    269

Note: Visiting heliskiers are reminded that the front range of Thompson Pass provides worldclass ski touring/mountaineering terrain for skiers from around the world, the local area, and yes, even visiting heliskiers and guides.  Cooperation before regulation works best.  The Chugach has vast areas away from popular venues for the recreational public to enjoy the ease of access to vast untracked slopes provided along the highway.  This access makes Thompson Pass truly unique.  Helisking above these areas is unsafe and intrusive.  The Chugach is vast so request your heliteam guide prove it by flying the extra few miles for untracked terrain.  Thanks to the 3 heliski companies operating in the Chugach who respect the safety and user-conflict issues.

Recent Significant Snow/Wind Events

4-21  Valdez is likely to finish it's 3rd straight season under 300", well below normal and statistically more the off.   Until 2005, Valdez had only one year with snow in the "200's"   ////  Snowfall from sea level mid-mountain remains about 70% of normal while above 5000' snowpack depth and snowfall 90% of normal. /////

SNOWCAMS of VALDEZ : A Forecasting Perspective by Matt Kinney
 

SKI REPORT

May 8, 2008 5PM 42F/Cloudy/Calm

May 6, 2008  7PM 43F/Cloudy/W5

SKI-GOOD in Sapphire and Odessey Arenas with corn coming on fast in am.  Bagged Day 157 today on my way to a personal best of 160 days and over 1 million feet up and down in one season, all earned, not motors. Temps dipping below 32F at night above 3000' with corn on west aspects by 2pm.  Ski reports will continue through this month.

AVY- MODERATE- Spring conditions as snowpack has gone isothermic below 4500'.  This is the last rating advisory for avalanche conditions in TP for this season. Hope it provided a bit more information to help you make the daily call.   200 skiers, local DOT personnel, and heli-guides checked our rating and info daily from Nov through April.   Hope to improve next year with compass diagrams for each Arena and tailor our forecast much like the Utah Avy Center that are easy for the general recreational public can understand.  This of course will be with a new upgrade to a better Mac. We will continue to provide the longest continuous ski report for VZ next year with our 10th season of forecasting. Been fun.

WX- DEFER to NWS for the remainder of the ski season. See above VZ forecast.

5-2 5PM 43F/PC/E5

SKI -VERY GOOD with spring conditions with some weak spots in the snowpack along with some sticky snows on the flats. We skied 2" damp powder in upper Catchers Mitt today. All Arena's skiable but brush becoming a burden in places.

AVY - MODERATE with little natural activity  with the exception of some wet point releases with occasional step downs at mid mountain levels.  Could be the hard Nov layer coming back to life in the short term (?) Steady temps over the past week enhancing stability and the transition to spring snowpack at higher elevations.  Ski triggered some pesky wet slabs today on S aspect at 35 at 1pm.  Clouds tempering sun effect on most slopes.  MF layer at surface above 2500.

WX- PARTLY CLOUDY on northside of TP with day temps in mid 40's and nights near 35 through the weekend.  Rain showers on the southside. Winds mostly E to 15mph.

5-1 8PM   41F/OVC/Calm

4-28 8PM  40F/PC/Calm

 4-28 - 7PM
Craig Dostie(CA)

4-27  7PM  35F/S-N/Calm

SKI - GOOD with 6" new snow above 2500' over the past 48hrs. Excellent possible on Mon-Tue.  Foray late today up Obsession found very nice, creamy snow and higher with drier at 4000' as we tagged a fall-line through willows in flat light.

AVY- CONSIDERABLE on all aspects at elevations above 2500' mainly with wet shallow slides to 6" at new/old interface. Ski cuts producing pinwheels at moderated angles.  Main concern is wet slides entraining large amounts of snow even at moderate angles.  Rating should lower within 24hrs as this snow event ends tonight and the new snow settles quickly.

WX - DRIER as things settle out and clouds become sparse with  nice sunspots on Monday and gradually better through Wed.  Good Ski weather with warm temps to near 40F in TP by Mon PM.

SKI - VERY GOOD with corn conditions. Skied Schoolbus late today and it was smooth. Skied Sugarloaf this am and it was mixed.  Nice skiing all week. Ski reports continue though this month. Measured 80" snowpack at mid-mountain in Schoolbus at 3500'

AVY- MODERATE generally,  as we have had some substantial shedding on most south aspects with step-downs abundant. Snow settling rapidly.  Good to review spring ski protocol to stay safe.

WX- SNOW maybe moving in tonight across mid to upper mountain areas through Sat noon with generally mild weather through the weekend with partly cloudy, temps to 35  and occasional snowshowers.

4-22 9PM 36F/Clear/Calm

4-21 9PM 34F/Clear/Calm

SKI - VERY GOOD with spring conditions and great weather across all Arenas since the last report. Rough areas quickly softening. South aspect in corn state by noon.  Wind board with soft dust in other places. Skied Loveland today favoring the north decent line and found good skiing top to car door.  Skied Little O tonight and it was rough but soft and skiable. Port Valdez Benzene reports good touring also.

AVY- MODERATEwith natural activity occurring on steep south aspect above mid mountain elevations from solar effect.  A few cornice have broke but no step-downs thus indicating a permanent trend towards spring stability.  Lots of "testers" out the past few days with little indication of issues along the road corridor.

WX- SUN, sun, sun at least til Thu late with snow. Temps daytime to near 40F in TP and 45F in VDZ. Light winds.  High Ci to temper solar heat a bit.

4-17  7PM 33F/Mostly Clear/E10

SKI - FAIR and improving as sun and high temps work to smooth out the rough edges along the front range from the wind event,  as the snowpack transition quickly to spring like conditions through the weekend.  Hit Trevors Rock in Moonlight Basin and skied well top to bottom but variable, go slow snow.

AVY - CONSIDERABLE , see previous report. Small naturals occuring.  CORNICE HAZARD in place beginning Fri with warm, spring conditions forecast to bake cornices,  which seem a bit larger than normal and ready to burp.

WX - SUNNY and warmer on Fri with winds easterly to 15mph. Temps above 32F in TP to 40F in VDZ by Sat. Cool nights to 10F in TP, 25F in VDZ.  High pressure dominates.

4-16  8PM  28F/Mostly Clear/NW10

SKI FAIR after intense, but short blast of 60-mph wind driven wet snow (.25we) just after 2am last night. Winds have significantly dropped at this time and Thur looks like good weather though expect mixed surface conditions. Warm temps expected to help smooth surface imperfection over the next few days especially on south - west aspect.

AVY - CONSIDERABLE rules on high S and SE aspects with high load rates from last nights near hail storm through Thu. Expect large deposition zones and soft pillows near crest and mid mountain wind lips.  Minimal activity noted in Snowslide G along with numerous small wind slab releases. X-loading a concern on E and W aspects north of Mile 27 to RFS.  First bluebird day in days on Thu worth considering as a human factor. Things should settle out quickly to MODERATE with warmer coastal temps moving in by the weekend, but hope to have more field info tomorrow. Take note above 2000' on SE/S/SW aspects on full sun days as activity should return in earnest.

WX - CLEAR and cold tonight with warm and sunny on Thu and into Sat with temps to the upper 30's. Pesky W breezes 25mph near gaps and passes.  No snow till Sunday evening.

4-14  9PM  35F/Cloudy/Calm
SKI - FAIR  due to visibility issues,  but light snow continues to fall above 2000' with another 6" in the past 24  hours above 4000' mainly on the southside.  Snow quality should be very good once we get a weather break.  Port Valdez reports a good base as do other routes favoring willows to escape flat light.   Lower Obsession on TP skis well in these conditions.
AVY- CONSIDERABLE works on a all aspects and elevations above 2000' as ambient air temps stay above 32* along with mixed rain and snow. Point releases and wet slides are likely and step downs(Nov layer) at mid-mountain are possible and have occurred.  Naturals are likely to continue.  This rating should  hold  through Tue  pm as a new storm adds more acute stress to the snowpack as it transition to spring conditions.  Common paths such as Snowslide should become active with larger wet slides likely.
WX - SNOW moving through upper mountains in earnest on Tue with a strong south westerly flow to keep temp above freezing at seas level through midweek.

4-12 9PM 29F/Cloudy/NW10G25
SKI -  FAIR as winds came up unexpectedly in TP and we lost the powder but are gaining some new snow.
AVY- CONSIDERABLE seem likely through Sun mainly along southerly aspects with this wind event and with unconsolidated old snow blowing around.  No natural noted today, but viz was poor on a drive through to 61-Mile
WX- WINDY continues with flurries through Sun mainly on the southside of TP.  Expect winds to decrease to the north of Worthington Glacier along with sunnier skies. Temps cool to mid 20's but windchill persist along ridges and crest for the next 48 hours. Occasional flurries with little accumulation.

4-11 8PM 29F/Mostly Clear/Calm
SKI - EXCELLENT mostly on north aspect and other shady features with a sun crust forming on south and west aspects.
AVY- MODERATE on most aspect and elevations with the exception of south and west aspect which showed significant sluffing today with a number of C3 wet slides on some areas. Step down to Nov layer obvious under Tone Temple in Loveland Basin.  No skier trigger reports.
WX - FINE through Sun and into Mon with temps near 35 in TP with some pesky CU clouds filtering in from oceanside.  Light and variable winds.

4-8  9PM  27F/Cloudy/Calm

April 6  6PM  29F/Flurries/Calm
SKI -  VERY GOOD taking big powder hits today on ridges to the left and right of  Schoolbus finding mostly 2-8" of nice powder skiing as snow flurries continue to refresh common runs.
AVY- CONSIDERABLE in new snow only in a few isolated places, mainly well formed and wind loaded snow pillows on NW aspects and under wind lips at 35*.  Skier triggered two Class 1's in the Odessey Arena today in these features. Other than that, MODERATE rules.
WX-  SUN pops out Mon-Tues but after snow showers diminish through tonight. Temps continue to push towards springlike 30's in TP.  Winds remain mostly S-SE but well below warning levels and should remain so til next winter.